Infinity Journal Volume 6, Issue 4, Summer 2019

Volume 6, Issue 4, Summer 2019 Infinity Journal Page 28 Abstract "Warfighting is fundamentally a human activity, in which humans choose what to do, consciously or subconsciously; rationally, irrationally or non-rationally", states Jim Storr. Therefore, it is susceptible to what behavioural economists call 'cognitive biases' expressed in heuristics, choices based on intuition that affect human judgement and weaken the theory of rational decision making. A realm so sensitive to cognitive biases provides fertile fields for actions designed to influence perceptions and consequently the decisions of the rival in our favour. For reasons elaborated,Western armies find it difficult to meet the challenge of Perception Management. The time has come to connect the cognitive and cultural biases to the conduct of war and to significantly and essentially expand the conduct of perception manipulation. Introduction It is reasonable for strategic and operational planners to envy crime-scene forensic analysts. The latter come to a scene after the event has occurred; if the police did its job properly, the scene will be closed, and the analyst can do his job of collecting evidence in relative quiet and concentration; afterwards he takes the findings to a laboratory and use the tools of science (chemistry, biology, physics…) to arrive at scientific conclusions. Nothing like the uncertainty, and often chaos, of the strategic environment and even more so of the battlefield. Researcher Itiel Dror reached a different conclusion. In an article titled How can Francis Bacon help forensic science? The four idols of human biases [i] he characterized the difficulties of forensic science in managing the biases of human thinking. He opens the article with a question that strategists and soldiers will empathize with: is forensic science actually a science and can one conduct a critical discussion of its paradigms? After concluding that it is indeed a science, he approaches it via Francis Bacon's four idols that bias human scientific research and uses them to analyze the failures of forensic scientists. The first, Idola Tribus , defines our limitations as members of the human race, and especially our difficulty in looking beyond the confines of our point of view. Thus, Dror notes, the combination of high professionalism and the cumulative discovery of evidence causes forensic scientists to fix on a theory already in the first stages of their work and they find it hard to abandon it for another. The second, Idola Specus , focuses on the personality, education, experience and world-view. Dror determines that forensic scientists see themselves as police detectives, and therefore identify with the need to use the evidence to point to a specific suspect and often one that is already in custody. The third, Idola Fori , describes the effect of our interaction with our surroundings, especially our social and professional contacts. Dror notes that working together with police detectives causes the forensic scientists to adopt practices and terminology that do not necessarily support clear-cut scientific results. The fourth, IdolaTheatri ,describes the determinations of blind faith based on narrow research and anecdotal observations. Dror argues that critical thinking is difficult when it might reveal human error in assessing the evidence. Thus, in a relatively closed profession, based on precise scientific tools and affecting the fates of human beings, human biases can cause significant errors. Dror argues that the military profession is less sensitive to these errors, because Shay Shabtai Konfidas Cybersecurity, Israel Shay Shabtai is a retired Israel Defense Force colonel. Shabtai is an expert and practitioner for more than twenty- five years in Middle East issues, Israel's national security, and intelligence and strategic planning.He was the Head of the Long-Term Strategic Planning Department in the IDF. Shabtai is currently a doctoral candidate researching the influence of Israel's intelligence community on its national security strategy, and lectures at Bar Ilan University and the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya. He is a strategist at Konfidas, a cybersecurity consulting company, which works with leading Israeli firms. To cite this Article: Shabtai, Shay, “War, Cognitive Biases and Perception Management: The Time Has Come”, Infinity Journal , Volume 6, Issue 4, summer 2019, pages 28-33 War, Cognitive Biases and Perception Management: The Time Has Come ID 27684198 © Rafael Ben Ari | Dreamstime.com