Military Strategy Magazine - Volume 7, Issue 4

Volume 7, Issue 4, Winter 2022 37 [viii] Here too propaganda issues muddy thewaters – the Azeris deny, thoughmultiple other sources attest to, the involvement of Syrian mercenaries, who apparently suffered 250 to 540 killed depending on the source. Also, the Azeris have not released total figures for wounded – only that on 3 December 2020, three weeks after the war ended and about 10 weeks from its beginning, 1,245 soldiers were still in medical institutions (Azerbaijan Ministry of Defence Statement, 3 December 2020). Given the usual statistics of wounded versus killed in wars conducted with large forces employing mostly heavy weapons, typical severity of wounds and recovery times that number suggests several thousand wounded throughout the war. The Armenians claimed to have inflicted 7,630 casualties (Armenian Ministry of Defence Spokesperson, 8 November 2020) . Their statements were often proven inaccurate so should be used with caution – this would suggest about 4,500 wounded. [ix] Official statement by the Armenian Ministry of Defence, 15:00, 8 November, 2020. This was their last statement on the subject though the war continued for another 39 hours. Photographic evidence collected by the Oryx team documents the destruction of 91 Azeri tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers, another 26 damaged and a few more abandoned and captured by the Armenians. However, the Armenians had much less photographic evidence to provide, because drones photograph their actions whereas ground weapons do not. [x] Official Azeri statements claimed successes on all these days with lists of Azeri villages abandoned in the previous war (1989 – 1994) were liberated. Even assuming they are telling the truth, the locations of these villages shows they are all right on the front line, a bit to the right or a bit to the left of the previous location claimed to be liberated. Also, as the war progressed, journalists visiting 'liberated' villages often found them still in Armenian hands. The Azeris apparently conducted a number of photo-op raids in which combat teams with cameras infiltrated behind Armenian forces to film the liberation of locations but withdrew shortly after. [xi] There have been reports of Armenian troops and units deserting against fewer reports claiming the same on Azeri troops. In war, there are often moments of crisis in which men and units break. Sometimes these are permanent and sometimes temporary. It is possible that in the last days of the war, more Armenians despaired so there was a greater inclination to retreat than to fight, but definitely during the first half of the war, the Armenians stood their ground and counter-attacked frequently and on the last days too there were fierce battles. [xii] Official statement by the Armenian Ministry of Defence, 15:00, 8 November, 2020. [xiii] "The bomber will always get through" – in a speech to parliament about the futility of trying to defend against the strategic bombing of a country's civilian heartland. The only way to win, suggested Baldwin, was to bomb the rival even more powerfully than he could bomb Britain so that the rival would capitulate before Britain was forced to. [xiv] For an explanation of the technical issues of the equipment used by the Armenians, see an article written by a former Serb air defence officer who had operated similar systems: Zoran Vukosavljević, "Okršaji azerbejdžanskih dronova i Sistema PVO Jermenije: Koje su lekcije za Srbiju?", Tango Six, 20 Oktober 2020, https://tangosix.rs/2020/20/10/analiza-okrsajiazerbejdzanskih-dronova-i-sistema-pvo-jermenije-koje-su-lekcije-za-srbiju/ [xv] Optimization to see targets only bigger than…and faster than… is done to reduce false detections fromvarious phenomena including birds. [xvi] Ashot Hakobyan, "General Daniel Balayan: 'Azerbaijanis brought this fight upon themselves ",Aravot – Armenia News, 21 July 2020, https://www.aravot-en.am/2020/07/21/260526/ [xvii] "Russia Shot-Down A Total Of Nine Turkish Bayraktar Drones Near Its Armenian Military Base – Russian Media Reports", EurAsian Times, October 21, 2020, https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-shot-down-a-total-of-nine-turkish-bayraktar-dronesnear-its-armenia-military-base-russian-media-reports/ [xviii] " Armenia: General accused Prime Minister Pashinyan of blunders in the war in Karabakh" (Russian), BBC News – Russian, 19 November 2020, https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-55005875. [xix] See for example the shooting-down of an American surveillance drone by Iranian air defences in summer 2019. [xx] Erwin Rommel, The Rommel Papers, De Capo Press, 1953, p 285. [xxi] John Flannelly, "Drone Effectiveness Against Air Defenses, Not Tanks, Is the Real Concern", The Defence Post, 7 December 2020, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2020/12/07/drone-effectiveness-air-defense/ Drones in the Nagorno-Karabakh War: Analyzing the Data Eado Hecht

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